Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.